Maybe left tackle Luke Joeckel beats out newcomer Kelvin Beachum.
Maybe Joeckel plays all 16 games and reaches a level of performance befitting a former second overall draft pick.
And maybe Joeckel stays with the Jaguars.
All signs point to none of that happening.
Judging by their decisions to sign Beachum (March 15) and not pick up Joeckel’s fifth-year contract option (Monday), the Jaguars don’t expect it to either.
The trend backs up the projection: Only four first-round picks from the 2011-12 drafts re-signed with their original team after having the option declined.
The collective bargaining agreement, when reached before the 2011 season, included massive draft-pick compensation reform, chiefly less money for rookies.