Sometimes, a player's performance on the field does not match up with his fantasy production.
I created some models last year to help evaluate fantasy production as it relates to numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP). On every play, there's an expected point value an NFL team has for the drive based on yard line, down, and distance. What happens on that play can change the expected point value on said drive. What NEP does is aggregate the value gained or lost on every play into a single, net number.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.