This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
Week 8 results rivaled a well executed coin flip. The model picked 7 of 14 winners straight up and 7 of 14 against the spread. It also went 1 for 2 in predicted upsets and so neither gained nor lost ground against Vegas, maintaining a 1 game edge on the season.