This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
Week 7 was another good week. The model again went 11 for 14 and has now pushed ahead of Vegas in the predicted wins race 73 (69.5%) to 72 (68.6%) .
It predicted 2 upsets and delivered on both of them (ARI over SEA, SF over NE).