This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
Week 6 was a good week. I went 11 for 14 and erased the deficit against the betting lines as both Vegas and my blind model have now predicted 62 of 91 winners (68.1%).
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Even more impressive (lucky) was that I went 10 for 14 against the spread, which brings me to a related issue: I am now measuring wins against the spread.