This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
In week 5, my model went 10 of 14. It predicted 2 upsets and hit on both of them (CHI, TEN) gaining 2 games on the betting lines. However, right before the Colts game, the line shifted to the Browns and I had to give one of those games back.