This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
In week 4, I finally gained a game on Vegas, as my model correctly called Minnesota over Houston and finished the week 11 for 15. On the year, that puts me 3 games back of the betting lines with a 65% accuracy rate.