This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
RESULTS
Last week, the model chose 2 games for upsets and missed on both of them, but fortunately, the Vegas lines slid before kickoff towards San Francisco and I picked up a game there by selecting Buffalo.