This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
Before I jump into week 12 results, I want to point out some maintenance that I did:
- Week 12 forecasts were adjusted prior to kickoff for Denver, Chicago and Baltimore to account for starting QB changes in those games.