This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
Each week, I have been waiting for the model to nosedive and week 11 was pretty close. It predicted 3 upsets and was wrong on every one of them guessing only 6 of 14 winners. In addition it only beat the spread on 6 of 14 games, which isn’t terrible but it’s worse than a coin flip.