This is an exercise in building a simple blind predictive model based on a team’s historical stats in 4 areas: pass and rush efficiency, and avg EPA for special teams and penalties. The season long experiment will track how well future games are determined by past statistical performance and compare that record against Vegas betting lines.
Week 9 was a good week. Well, not for the Colts.
The model went 11 for 14 and beat the spread in 9 of 14 games. It went 2 for 2 on its upsets (NYG over WAS, NO over TB) but Vegas changed the line on the Charger/Raider game favoring the Raiders at the 11th hour and so I had to give back one of those games.