Lovie Smith likes to break the season into four quarters: three games in each.
It's a good idea that seems to work for him,
But I'm not a high-paid college coach. I've got a different system.
I split the Illinois season into three categories, based on winnability: Very likely, toss-ups and long shots.
In the first four games, Smith's team played all three kinds. There were the very likely wins, what we'll call VLs, against Kent State and Western Illinois.
The Kent State game was much closer than oddsmakers expected. The Illini had to rally for a 31-24 victory.