The Value of Things: Turnover Margins

One of the more difficult concepts in statistical analysis is the difference between importance and value.

Statistics can be very relevant when it comes to predicting success or failure in any one game or any one season. Yet, while those statistics are relevant, they may not be reliable. Reliability refers to how often those results can be replicated or in the case of sports how much control any individual or team has over creating the desired result.

In plain English, we know a few things about turnovers. We know that the team that commits the most turnovers in any one game is likely to lose that game. We know that if a team can consistently force the other team to turn it over then the team…