The Value of Things: The Davis Mills Question

Photo by Bob Levey/Getty ImagesOne of the more fun thing to do with statistics is a deep dive where you get to test conventional wisdom. Conventional wisdom is often trusted without really diving deep and testing it out. It is just generally accepted and people move on. In this case, the conventional wisdom says you have to give a quarterback three to five seasons to develop until you figure out whether they can be a solid to good starter in the NFL.

It makes sense. People even point to examples to prove it. Josh Allen was no great shakes in his rookie season. Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers didn’t even play in their rookie seasons. Obviously, it took a little while for Tom Brady to become…