2025 NBA Cup math, schedule update: Rockets unlikely to advance

Entering Thanksgiving week, all 30 teams have at least one of their four group-stage games remaining in Emirates NBA Cup 2025 action. Some have two.

But for the Houston Rockets (10-4 on the 2025-26 regular season, 1-2 in Cup play), elimination appears almost inevitable after Friday’s group-stage loss to the Denver Nuggets.

To explain why, let’s look at the Cup standings entering the week:

After their winning their group in the 2024 NBA Cup, the Rockets have already lost the possibility of doing so in 2025. Even if the Rockets win their group-stage finale at Golden State on Wednesday night, Houston’s best-case outcome is a 2-2 mark.

The only way 2-2 would be tied for the Group C lead is if…