ZiPS Projections for a World Series Champion, 2013-2018

In case you hadn't heard, the Astros completed their metamorphosis in 2017, rising from the official Worst Team in Baseball (with a bottom farm system to boot) to the World Series Champions. I have a cap and a tee shirt that displays that fact, so I get to be reminded of that on a near-daily basis. I simply thought it would never happen, so the fact that it did happen so early in their window of contention makes us serious fans think that the future may continue to be very, very bright.

Every year since 2015, I have had a look at how the the Astros have been projected in pre-season assessments from 2013 onward. This is mostly an exercise for entertainment purposes: for example, this is an…