Fangraphs has begun releasing ZIPS 2024 projections for each team. The Astros 2024 projections were released last week. At this point, the projections are preliminary, since teams have not yet completed their off-season player acquistions.
Team composition may change in the coming months, but these projections give us a good starting point for estimating how teams will perform in 2024. At this point, ZIPS is fairly bullish on the Astros. Dan Symborski, the developer of ZIPS, writes:
I think the Braves will have a better projection when all is said and done, but the Astros will likely be the favorite in the AL West, despite the Rangers, and should project safely north of 90 wins unless something goes seriously wrong this winter.