Earlier this month, I had a short post discussing FanGraphs’ team projections for starting pitching, explicitly highlighting where the Astros were ranked at the time (13th). For the record, Houston is now ranked 12th as February approaches. Even accounting for the loss of Justin Verlander, it does feel like the projections do not fully appreciate this year’s presumed rotation (see: infield flies for Cristian Javier as an example).
That said, I think the projections and subsequent comments (shoutout to Exile and Clack) highlighted the disconnect in my mind between what actually occurred last year and what the computer models are expressing for 2023.