We are now hitting the final stretch of the regular season, and the NFL MVP race between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes will soon come to an end. But just how did Week 14 shake up the pecking order when it comes to these two elite quarterbacks?
Before we get to the rankings, here is a short overview of the methodology:
- We trained a model to predict the winner of the MVP award at the conclusion of the regular season. The model is based on three regular-season parameters:
- The number of wins (and how that ranks across the league)
- Rank in the division
- Expected points added per play (and how that ranks across the league)
- Since the model works with regular-season stats in hindsight, we need to simulate the remaining games of the season in order to feed the model.