The idea of a “late-round steal” is as old as the draft itself and it’s a comforting, intuitive premise. It would easy to look at a player like Equanimeous St. Brown, with an incredible size/speed combination and Notre Dame pedigree, and think the Packers got a potential impact player in the sixth round.
Count me as someone who feels that way (I thought St. Brown was an easy Day 2 prospect). However, NFL history says otherwise, especially for such players in their rookie seasons.
As Justis Mosqueda pointed out on Twitter, just four of 98 receivers taken 133rd or later since 2011 have started half their games as rookies.