I truly believe that one of the most important stats to keep track of in football is teams’ records in single-score games. It’s a tough pill to swallow, but here’s one of the dirtiest little secrets in the sport: No one is good at winning close games.
The Tom Brady New England Patriots (+4.5)
weren’t great at pulling out wins in tight games. They were good at making sure it didn’t come down to a single bounce of the ball.
In the NFL, winning too many close games in a single season brings on extra pressure from the league’s parity-based feedback loop.