2025 NFL draft Round 1 trades: Which teams should make moves?

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Should your favorite team move up or down during the NFL draft? It's an inexact science. In my time covering the league, most of the research I've seen has suggested that teams don't have much ability to pick between players at similar tiers, which has steered me toward the idea that trading down is best.

When I did a deep dive into this topic last year, though, I was surprised by the results. It's true that teams that trade up lose more often than they win, but when they're right, the players they land are successful enough to mostly make up for the times when they trade up and whiff. Between 2011 and 2023, in terms of expected value, teams collectively paid about the right…