Warriors vs. Grizzlies Game 4 Preview & Prediction

The Memphis Grizzlies have a surprising 2-1 lead over the Golden State Warriors, and they're looking to push the No. 1 seed to the brink of elimination. Can the Grizzlies do just that at home, or will the Warriors find a way to even the series?

Projected Starting Lineups

(1) Golden State Warriors (67-15)

G Stephen Curry – 23.8 ppg, 7.7 apg, 2.1 spg
G Klay Thompson – 21.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg
F Harrison Barnes – 10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg
F Draymond Green – 11.7 ppg, 8.2 rpg
C Andrew Bogut – 6.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg

(5) Memphis Grizzlies (55-27)

G Mike Conley, Jr. – 15.8 ppg, 5.4 apg

G Tony Allen – 7.2 ppg, 6.3 rpg

G Courtney Lee – 10.1 ppg, 2.3 rpg

F Zach Randolph – 16.1 ppg, 10.5 rpg

C Marc Gasol – 17.4 ppg, 7.8 rpg

What to watch for:

Can Golden State control the tempo?

Golden State has been a reactive mess in these past two losses, waiting on the inevitable Tony Allen switch and attempting to adjust a split second too late. For the Warriors to salvage a split in Memphis, they need to be aggressive with their ball movement, slash and kick work, and feeds into the post. Unless they can speed up the game and Memphis’ decision making, Game 4 will be a similar slog to that of Game 2 & 3, hampering the Warriors’ high-octane style and leveling the playing field.

Who wins the turnover battle?

The Grizzlies killed the Warriors on points off turnovers in Game 3, using a +15 margin off Golden State mistakes to both build a lead and keep it down the stretch. The Warriors of these past two games look eerily similar to the turnover-prone enigma of the early season — except they’re not hitting open looks, which makes the points off turnovers that much more crucial. Cutting the turnovers and getting more organized when they inevitably have to play transition defense is key for the Warriors in this one.

Prediction: Warriors win 98-94

Bottom line: Golden State needs to win this game. Their season is in a very fragile state going into Game 4, and a loss would force them to pull off a historic comeback to win this series. The Warriors will play with an added level of intensity because of that desperation, and that will be enough to give them the win.