It’s been almost three years now since Andrew Bogut was an elite NBA center. Bogut encouraged Warriors fans with flashes of excellence last year (including a 14-point, 21-rebound performance in the decisive Game 6 win over Denver), but more often than not he
’s been a far cry from the dominant defensive force that made the All-NBA third team in 2009-10.
Much of the Warriors' success this season will depend on which Bogut shows up – if he can’t stay healthy and provide productive minutes, the Warriors will be forced to rely on Jermaine O’Neal (who turns 35 in October) and David Lee (who doesn’t have the size to guard most NBA centers).
With Golden State’s wealth of scorers, no one expects Bogut to create points on his own. However, the Warriors will need Bogut’s defensive production to improve now that he’s no longer rehabbing from injury. In 56 games since April 2011, Bogut has averaged 8.5 rebounds and 1.7 blocks per game – not bad, but a clear decline from the 11.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game he averaged before his ankle injury.
Warriors fans generally blame Bogut’s diminished output on the ankle fracture he suffered in January 2012, but that oversimplifies the way his complicated injury history has altered his game. Bogut was stellar for most of 2009-10, but in April 2010 he dislocated his shoulder and broke his wrist during a game against the Phoenix Suns. Prior to that injury, Bogut made 53% of his shots from the field and 60% of his free throws, but since he's shot 48% from the field and only 46.4% from the line.
Bogut also sprained his foot during his second year in the NBA, and a stress fracture in his back sidelined him for much of the 2008-2009 season. The dents and scratches he's picked up over the years were enough to convince Milwaukee to part with the first overall pick in the 2005 draft, but the Warriors are hoping that after a tune-up and a paint job, he'll run like new.
Bogut won’t average 16 points, 10 rebounds and 2.5 blocker per game like he did in 2008-2009, but his solid footwork and intensive off-season training regimen are encouraging signs that he’ll continue to rebound well. We’ve heard encouraging reports from training sessions at Bogut's Australian basketball center this summer, and if he stays healthy, it’s reasonable to expect him to put up around 8 points, 10 rebounds and 2 blocks per contest. Mark Jackson will carefully manage Bogut's playing time - don't expect him to get more than 25 minutes a night.
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