Final Score: UCF 27-10
Model Prediction: UCF by 18, GT to cover: correct
Projected EPA (Offense and Defense) Margin of Victory: UCF by 9
GT Win Probability (Based on Success Rate, Yards Per Play, and EPA): 47%
The Geoff Collins era is over, and this game is a perfect encapsulation of so many of the failures that got us to this point. Georgia Tech was largely UCF’s equal on a down to down basis in this game; throwing offensive and defensive EPA/play, success rate, and yards per play results into our formula tells us this is a game Georgia Tech would win about 47% of the time.