Continuing the vein of doing untraditional advanced stat reviews this season, we’re going to be doing something totally different today! We’re going to talk about win probability today.
Previously we talked about post-game win expectancy. Now, I know that expectancy and probability can intermingle a little bit, so I wanted to briefly talk about the two differences.
Post-Game Win Expectancy: Measures the % likelihood that a team can expect to win a game if it was replayed N times based on in-game factors.
Win Probability: Measures at any point in a given game the % likelihood that a team will win the game as is based on in-game factors.