We just saw this scenario last week. A one-loss team at home as a +6.5 betting underdog against a top-10 opponent playing its first road game. The underdog won outright. That was the FSU vs. UVA game on Friday night.
Now, Virginia needed several things to go their way, and FSU shot itself in the foot a few times, but they played well enough to win in double overtime.
Miami is in the same position as FSU was last week. The only difference is that they are coming into the game off a bye week, which has its positives and negatives.