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Why numeric projections may undersell Florida football again

Shortly before last season ended, I noted that the major data-driven projection systems were seeing Florida winning about seven or eight games. It was close enough to the season that optimism was high among Gators, though, and in GC’s Bullgator Den, a poll showed members predicting more like eight or nine wins. I gave reasons why each could’ve been correct. In actuality, UF ended up winning nine regular season games, showing that the fans were closer than the computers last year.

This year the S&P+ system predicts Florida winning 8.3 games, while ESPN’s FPI sees 8.