Hot Streaks and Playoff Success in MLS

Read Michael Lewis’ Moneyball, and you may be surprised to learn that the most famous efficiency project in sports history did not end in a glorious title. For all the work Athletics’ GM Billy Beane did to build a team that won way more games than their payroll should have allowed, those teams couldn’t get over the hump in October. Eventually, Beane threw his hands up and famously said, “My s*** doesn’t work in the playoffs.” Now, the Red Sox took his methods and broke a massive title drought a couple of years later, but the point was simple: you can raise your chances of winning as much as you want, but in the small sample sizes of the playoffs, even the best teams can get eliminated. Unlikely things happen all the time (especially in single-elimination tournaments).

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