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MLB home run projections are bonkers

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In 2018, MLB released the results of an independent study conducted by a committee of scientists “on the causes of the increased home run rate in the game since 2015.” The panel found the surge in home run hitting over that span was due, at least in part, “to a change in the aerodynamic properties of the baseball.” More specifically, the experts found the ball used in games over the past few years created less drag as it moved through the air, causing it to travel further. It appears to remain a problem.

The Washington Nationals hit back-to-back-to-back-to-back home runs against the San Diego Padres in June, becoming the first team in MLB history to hit four consecutive home runs on more than one occasion.