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ESPN’s numbers favor Penn State — but Clemson enters the Pinstripe Bowl with momentum.

ESPN analytics give Penn State the edge, but Clemson’s late-season surge tells a different story heading into the Pinstripe Bowl.

Clemson defensive coordinator Tom Allen talks near Clemson linebacker Wade Woodaz (17), left, and Clemson linebackers coach Ben Boulware during the Pinstipe Bowl practice in Clemson, S.C. Monday, Dec. 15, 2025. | Ken Ruinard / USA Today Co / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN analytics may be leaning one way — but the game itself feels far from settled.

When Clemson Tigers face the Penn State Nittany Lions in the Pinstripe Bowl on Saturday at Yankee Stadium, both programs arrive with something to prove after seasons that veered sharply off preseason expectations.