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Understanding Rookie Quarterbacks with Clustering and Bayesian Forecasting: Justin Herbert had one of the best rookie seasons ever

Three quarterbacks were selected within the first six picks of the 2020 NFL Draft, and we expected all of them to start sooner rather than later. Their respective teams certainly didn’t disappoint us in that regard, though the Philadelphia Eagles did surprise us by starting Jalen Hurts for multiple games at the end of the season due to Carson Wentz‘s struggles.

The question is, what have we learned from the play of these first-year quarterbacks?

Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert undoubtedly showed the most promise with one of the best rookie seasons in recent history while Joe Burrow confirmed that he was worthy of a first-overall pick before his season-ending injury, and while Tua Tagovailoa and Hurts both had their moments, they also made typical rookie mistakes and fell to the usual shortcomings.