[The news on the White Sox picking up Craig Kimbrel’s $16 million option and declining César Hernández’s $6 million option for 2022 broke just as we’re on the verge of publishing Luke Smailes’ detailed offseason plan, and his stuff about Craig Kimbrel was so astute it’s just pulled from his plan and presented here.]
Craig Kimbrel was acquired at the 2021 trade deadline with a completely-unsustainable 0.49 ERA, with help from a .203 BABIP. His HR/FB% regressed hard after the trade, and his fastball was down 1.2 mph. He struck out fewer hitters and walked more, yet there was nothing, aside from the drop in fastball velocity, that signaled a major decrease in pitch quality.