On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus issued its PECOTA standings, and the White Sox look about as good as expected.
Sure, you could argue that the low-80s wins is a dour take, but this projection meets the minimum standard for this stage in the rebuild: Crossing the 80-win plateau and vying for the postseason. (Next year, crossing 90 wins and contending for the division, is going to be the hardest jump of all.)
I’m no Good Will Hunting Matt Damon, but when looking at the percentages above, there appears to be ~12% chance of a wild card for the White Sox this season, which seems on the high side given likely competition: Houston Astros, New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays, Oakland A’s, Angels, Minnesota Twins, Cleveland, Boston Red Sox.