Quantifying Hope: Cubs Lose Grip on Wild Card, Drop to 41% Playoff Odds

The Cubs had a firm grasp on some sort of playoff contention for the longest time and just needed to keep winning at a reasonable pace to maintain it. But that grip grew ever more tenuous as they repeatedly failed to gain ground on their Central rivals or on the rest of the Wild Card contenders. So it is that their odds of reaching the postseason have plummeted to 41% after Thursday’s loss dropped them out of the Wild Card.

The Cubs are still just a game behind Milwaukee and two behind Washington for the consolation prizes. They’re also just four games back of St. Louis with six more to play against them, so anything can happen there. In that sense, they do still control their own destiny,…