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Quantifying Hope: Cubs Hold 96% Playoff Odds Despite Standings Drop

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The Cubs just dropped two of three to the Royals, becoming the first good team in MLB history to lose a home series to a sub-.500 opponent. And if you don’t believe that’s true, spend a few minutes on social media. The fact of the matter is that the Cubs are 11-7 this month with series wins over the Guardians, Cardinals, Yankees, and Red Sox. Their fall from first place isn’t due to their own failure, it’s the result of the Brewers being the hottest team in baseball.

I hope I’m preaching to the choir here, but winning 11 of 12 is neither normal nor sustainable.