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Projections Be Damned, Don’t Sleep on Jon Lester

Jon Lester’s number 34 could hang high above the Wrigley foul pole one day, but computers believe his success with the Cubs is coming to a screeching halt. New projections suggest his 2020 value will be replacement level at best, and perhaps even worse than that.

Lester’s most favorable projection among the three heavily used models is ZiPS, which predicts him to be worth 1.8 WAR with a roughly league-average 4.38 ERA and 4.54 FIP, respectively. STEAMER is not far behind, putting him at the same 1.8 WAR but with a less favorable 4.73 ERA and 4.65 FIP.