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Predicting Trevor Williams’ Whiff Rate Via Machine Learning Offers Clues to His Improvement

Hey Siri, tell me how Trevor Williams can get more strikeouts this season. It wasn’t quite that easy, but I did ask my computer to consider all of the new Cubs starter’s Statcast from 2019-2020 in an attempt to predict slider whiffs.

Specifically, I fed it the following data:

  1. Vertical location (plate_z)
  2. Horizontal location (plate_x)
  3. Velocity
  4. Spin Rate
  5. Horizontal release point
  6. Vertical release point
  7. Horizontal movement (pfx_x)
  8. Vertical movement (pfx_z)
  9. Release extension
  10. Previous pitch
  11. Previous two pitches
  12. Pitch count

The computer figured out the most important numbers and identified cutoff points to classify a whiff, resulting in a tree-looking figure and an algorithm.