Right up until the Tigers’ Miguel Cabrera singled Saturday against the Rockies, the career assessment calculator at ESPN.com listed him with a 97% chance of reaching 3,000 hits.
Why so low? The calculator uses a formula Bill James has called ‘‘My Favorite Toy’’ since its introduction in his 1980s ‘‘Baseball Abstract.’’ The chance of reaching a target is limited to 97% in one season. There’s the chance of an injury or other career-ending event before the milestone is achieved.
With adjustments for expected career length, the annual ‘‘Bill James Handbook’’ listed Cabrera’s chances at 98% entering the season.