MESA, Ariz. -- It was hidden in plain sight. And everyone in the locker room saw it. At the bottom of the daily schedule, on Day 1 of full-squad workouts for the Chicago Cubs, was a prediction for their season. Baseball Prospectus' proprietary PECOTA formula had the Cubs going 80-82, finishing in last place in the Central Division.
In fact, one day later -- perhaps because Mike Moustakas re-signed with the Milwaukee Brewers -- PECOTA downgraded the Cubs to 79 wins. So the team that has won an average of nearly 97 games the last four years is supposed to take a huge dip, at least according to the Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm.