Know your enemy: St. Louis Cardinals

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports KEY ADDITIONS: Nolan Arenado

KEY SUBTRACTIONS: Kolten Wong, Dexter Fowler, Brad Miller, Matt Wieters, John Brebbia, Rangel Ravelo, Austin Gomber

A lot of people have assumed that the big trade that brought Nolan Arenado to the Cardinals in exchange for four minor leaguers and Austin Gomber would immediately rocket St. Louis to being the division favorite.

But that’s not where Fangraphs has them — in fact, the Fangraphs projection has no NL Central team with a winning record. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA method has the Cardinals third behind the Brewers and Cubs.

Of course, those are projections, not predictions, and always subject to change.

Why is this?

Arenado is…