Chicago Cubs: PECOTA misses the mark when forecasting the 2017 team

The projections for the Chicago Cubs aren’t all that bad. They’re predicted to win the NL Central once again. But their win total is forecasted to drop. What gives?

The popular projection measure, released this week by Baseball Prospectus for the upcoming season, says the Chicago Cubs will take home the National League Central again in 2017 – but will win just 88 games.

It’s not hard to support the claim the Cubs overperformed in 2016.

Kyle Hendricks broke out in a Cy Young-like way; Kyle Schwarber’s injury was overcome in its entirety and the team came from behind to win eight games when trailing in the final inning. When the dust settled in the regular season, Chicago finished with 103 wins…