Baseball projection systems have a certain amount of built-in caution.
When a player has a breakthrough season, regression will be projected until he does it again — and perhaps again. Players having unusually bad seasons will be projected to bounce back.
And the 60-game season of 2020 is likely to be a less reliable indicator than a 162-game season.
That’s part of the reason for Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections, which have confounded White Sox fans who have championship hopes and surprised Cubs fans fearing the bottom will fall out. Updated last week and reflecting the injury to Sox outfielder Eloy Jimenez, the PECOTA standings at baseballprospectus.