Against All Odds: Carson Kelly’s Improbable Cycle

AP Photo/Godofredo A. VásquezIn a stunning offensive display, Chicago Cubs backup catcher Carson Kelly achieved a feat as rare as it is remarkable: he hit for the cycle last night. While hitting for the cycle is an uncommon occurrence in Major League Baseball, the odds of Kelly doing so were exceptionally low. Let’s examine the numbers.

According to available records, fewer than 400 cycles have been recorded since 1882. This achievement is often compared to the no-hitter in terms of rarity, solidifying its status as one of baseball’s most elusive accomplishments. The average MLB player’s probability of hitting for the cycle in a single game is estimated to be around 0.0059%.

However, the odds…