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The Draft Research Project: Performance-based Tiers

Background

So, after a looking at a traditional round-by-round analysis of the draft, considering the variation between draft classes, and discussing the role that position plays in draft outcomes, there are some implications for how draft picks actually sort out on a tier-by-tier basis. Simply put, it makes no sense to expect the same outcome from the fifth pick in the draft as from the twenty-fifth, but the variations between the 200th pick and the 250th pick are much less noticeable.

In developing the tiers for this installment, bands of picks 5-, 10-, and 15-strong were originally tested.