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Random Thoughts: Early signs and the Mark Jankowski challenge

Related Topics: Mark Jankowski

There's always one thing to remember at this time of year – it's early. It's really, really early.

That seems like a trite observation, but you often see people rush to judgment based on a tiny sprinkling of outcomes at the onset of every season. This is natural for a simple reason – there's nothing to compare anything to. Because early-season outcomes comprise the only information available at the time, the tendency is to overweight the value of the first five or ten games. This is dangerous for more than just sample size considerations: for many teams, the first 10-games or so are likely the least representative sample of the season.