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Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: Ranking pass block win rates for 2021

A few years ago, ESPN Analytics developed pass block win rate (PBWR) to measure how often individual players and teams sustained their pass blocks for at least 2.5 seconds, using player tracking data from NFL Next Gen Stats. That was backward-looking, but let's flip it forward to project every team's pass block win rate for the 2021 season.

To achieve this we used a regression model that considers every projected starter's individual pass block win rate over the past two seasons. Players who did not play in either or both seasons (including rookies) were assigned a below-average PBWR for their position, and anyone who failed to meet the qualifying threshold had their win rate regressed toward that below-average target.