Cal stands at 18-8 with four games left to play. You’d guess if they win out, they’re safely in. If they win three of four, they’re probably safely in.
But 2-2? That’s where things get dicey. With Cal hosting Oregon this week and visiting the Mountain schools next week, 2-2 is at the moment the likeliest projection. Pomeroy has Cal at best just under a coin flip to beat Oregon, Utah, and Colorado. The Bears need to take two of three to place themselves at 21-9 and safely into the NCAA tournament.
At the moment, Cal stands as around a 10 or 11 seed according to the Bracket Matrix, with the Bears ticking back toward the 11 seed after their loss to Stanford.