A lot of football analysts have made predictions about the career arc of Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Eye-test analysts have been a mixed bag of prognostications. Data-based predictions have NOT been a mixed bag, with seemingly the entire field of mathematics not liking Josh Allen’s chances. And until this year math was the undisputed champion.
After Allen’s rookie year I was too impatient to see how his second year would go so I took a look at similar QBs in the decade prior to Allen to see how they changed from year one to two.