Editor's note: This piece originally ran on Nov., 11 2019. We're bringing it back after the Colts tried it when they were down 8 points against the Bills in their AFC wild-card matchup. The move raised eyebrows, but for others it was a high-stakes embodiment of a longstanding strategy in analytics circles. Going for 2 down 8 late in the game is generally the correct move. And more and more, it's a move head coaches are willing to make.
An NFL team is down by 14 points in the fourth quarter, and it scores a touchdown to pull within 8.